The ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has been upgraded to an “above normal” level of activity due to the current oceanic and atmospheric conditions, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
This adjustment comes in response to record-warm sea surface temperatures and other environmental factors. Previously categorized as “near normal,” the updated outlook now projects a 70% likelihood of 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 could intensify into hurricanes, and 2-5 may escalate into major hurricanes.
Remarkably, the present conditions are anticipated to counterbalance the typically restraining atmospheric factors linked to the ongoing El Niño event. While cyclone formation can occur throughout the year, the official Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, coinciding with the period when the majority of tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season began notably early, with a subtropical storm forming southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, on January 17, following a special tropical weather outlook by the National Hurricane Center on January 16. Subsequent events unfolded rapidly, with Tropical Storm Arlene impacting Florida on June 1 and Tropical Storm Bret intensifying as it approached the Lesser Antilles on June 19.
Tropical Storm Cindy, which formed in late June, encountered weakening conditions before dissipating near the northern Leeward Islands by June 26. Subtropical Storm Don emerged on July 14 near Bermuda, maintaining an unusually prolonged trajectory across the Atlantic in July. Although briefly attaining hurricane status, Don eventually transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on July 24.