The Caribbean region is bracing for continued heat stress and an elevated number of heatwave days through the peak of the hurricane season, according to a recent outlook from the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF).
CariCOF’s Heat Outlook for August 2024 to January 2025 predicts that August to October — the height of the Caribbean Heat Season — will be “considerably hotter than usual,” with intense and potentially record-breaking daytime and nighttime heat, as well as rising humidity levels towards September.
“The Caribbean is not out of the heat yet,” the outlook states. “Excessive heat should slowly decrease in November, transitioning into the Cool Season from December.”
During the August to October period, the forecast calls for 50 or more heatwave days in Barbados, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago. The Bahamas, Belize and the Greater Antilles are expected to see between 25 and 50 heatwave days, while The Bahamas, parts of the Greater Antilles, Lesser Antilles and Suriname will likely experience at least 30 heatwave days.
Typically, the region sees 15 to 30 heatwave days in Puerto Rico, coastal Guiana and the Lesser Antilles during this timeframe, with 5 to 15 heatwave days elsewhere.
The prolonged heat stress poses significant risks, particularly for vulnerable populations. Health officials across the Caribbean are urged to implement measures to protect residents and mitigate the impacts of the extreme conditions.
As the Atlantic hurricane season continues, the high temperatures and humidity could also contribute to the development and intensification of tropical systems. Emergency management agencies are advised to factor the heat outlook into their preparedness plans.
Meteorologists say the forecast underscores the need for the Caribbean to continue strengthening its resilience to the effects of climate change, which are driving more extreme weather events in the region.